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[Dilbert]

was in fact another spineless, unprepared leader

 

kraine’s Leader Has Jumped Into Trump’s Trap

And the winner is … Vladimir Putin.

By Sylvie Kauffmann

Ms. Kauffmann is the editorial director of Le Monde.

 

For some Europeans, the most embarrassing revelation of the now very public phone conversation between Donald Trump and Ukraine’s president on July 25 was not the attempt by Mr. Trump to interfere in the judiciary system of a foreign country for his own political benefit. Nothing the American president does could surprise any longer.

What they found particularly disappointing, instead, was the servility with which his young counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, sought to ingratiate himself with Mr. Trump, pretending that he had won the Ukrainian presidency by imitating him, claiming to have appointed a new prosecutor general who would be “100 percent my person,” and happily joining in the Euro-bashing that has become one of Mr. Trump’s trademarks. 

Masks were falling off. So this popular maverick comedian turned real-life politician after playing one in a TV series, this promising reformer that President Emmanuel Macron of France had hosted at the Élysée even before he was elected, was in fact another spineless, unprepared leader jumping into President Trump’s every trap.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Macron have been wise enough not to comment on this pathetic turn of events. Privately, French diplomats insist that Paris still actively supports Mr. Zelensky — even more so in light of the American meltdown. What is at stake in Ukraine for the European Union is far too important, and the risk of seeing Mr. Trump’s dirty work derail laborious efforts to reform that post-Soviet country far too real.

The issue is bigger than Mr. Zelensky. After a popular uprising in 2014 forced a corrupt predecessor of Mr. Zelensky to flee to Russia, Ukraine and its 44 million citizens became the new frontier of democratic Europe. To prevent that from succeeding, President Vladimir Putin’s Russia annexed Crimea and intervened in the Donbas region, across its border.

Contrary to Mr. Trump’s claims, the European Union has been very active in Ukraine — and far more generous than the United States — in supporting reforms in its governance, economy and civil society. Since 2014, European institutions have mobilized more than 15 billion euros in grants and loans, on top of bilateral assistance from member states.

Brussels has signed an association agreement with Kiev that includes the most wide-ranging free trade agreement ever concluded by the union: If Ukraine manages to bring its legal norms and regulations in line, it could end up fully integrating its economy into the European single market. Thanks to a new visa-free system, set up in 2017, millions of Ukrainians have been able to travel and work in Europe, mostly in neighboring Poland, and send remittances back home. The European Union Advisory Mission maintains 300 people in Ukraine to help transform the Ukrainian civilian security sector.

But in the field of military aid, the United States is Ukraine’s main partner. That is why withholding $391 million of such aid, as the Trump administration did this summer, can so effectively put pressure on Kiev. In the five-year-old war with Russia over Donbas, which has claimed 13,000 lives, American support has been crucial. Defense experts point out that when the Pentagon sent Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine two years ago, Russian tanks pulled back.So when a new, untested 41-year-old president of Ukraine gets ready to take on Mr. Putin, the ruler for two decades of the big power next door, the last thing he needs is his main military aid provider withdrawing its backing.

Indeed, the Trump mess could not come at a worse time for President Zelensky. Four months into his term, a big question mark still hangs over the direction this fast-learning political novice will choose for his country. “He is from another planet,” reckoned a European diplomat who has watched him closely. 

Mr. Zelensky campaigned on a promise to bring peace, unify the country and fight corruption, and won by a landslide. Voters were desperate for change, which he embodied, but his political program was so vague that analysts were left guessing. The kind of president Mr. Zelensky would be, they concluded, would be determined by who in his entourage ended up having the upper hand. 

The young, earnest reformers who have joined his government, supported by new members of Parliament? His childhood friends and former associates of his TV production company? Or the immovable oligarchs, and one billionaire in particular — Ihor Kolomoisky, whose PrivatBank was nationalized three years ago after financial regulators found that $5.5 billion was missing fromits accounts?

Who wins this competition is of interest not just to Ukrainian voters. Ukraine’s European partners and the International Monetary Fund, which has set up a major credit line to help the country rebuild its economy, are also watching closely. An I.M.F. delegation visited Kiev in September but left without an agreement on a new cooperation program; its members seemed both impressed by the reformers’ ambition and wary of Mr. Kolomoisky’s ostentatious presence. 

The oligarch returned from self-imposed exile as soon as Mr. Zelensky, his protégé, took office in May. He is now talking to the government about $2 billion in “compensation” for the loss of PrivatBank. For foreign experts, whether the government gives in will be a test of President Zelensky’s political strength.

In France, President Macron, having bet on Mr. Zelensky as a potential game-changer and eager to reopen a wider dialogue with Moscow, has been encouraging Ukraine to try to give new impetus to stalled peace talks with Russia on Donbas. President Zelensky and President Putin have talked on the phone, which led to a much-awaited exchange of prisoners in early September and, lately, into some positive steps in the negotiation over the future status of Donbas.Enter Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, a whistle-blower and Nancy Pelosi. Very much an American story — except that Ukraine is unwillingly dragged into the mud. While Washington wallows in the impeachment procedure, the consequences could be devastating for its relationship with Kiev. The resignation of Kurt Volker, the State Department special envoy for Ukraine, whom Ukrainians considered their most solid defender in negotiations with Russia, is seen as a big loss, especially coming after Washington’s recall of Marie Yovanovitch as the American ambassador in May.

President Zelensky, his image now tarnished, is left to mend fences with his European allies. President Macron will have to adjust to this new situation. Last but not least, as the anti-corruption activist Daria Kaleniuk recently lamented on the Ukrainian television channel Hromadske, “The U.S. push for good governance in Ukraine is seriously undermined. What America was selling to the world used to be the rule of law.”

And the winner is … Vladimir Putin. President Jimmy Carter’s former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski in his 1997 book, “The Grand Chessboard,” described newly independent Ukraine as “a geopolitical pivot, because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia.” He added: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful imperial state.”

The stakes are still that high. Whether President Trump is aware of it is anybody’s guess.