Dow closes down nearly 1,200 points after plunging more than 1,500 points in volatile trading

[Dilbert]

 

шо песимістичні прогнози щодо економіки

 

 

думаю це така реакція на виступ президента, чи якісь ще інші чинники на додачу?

 

у 2008 гепнувся ринок житла, що очікувати тепер?

[Dilbert]

One of the big worries is that the Federal Reserve, under new chairman Jerome Powell who was officially sworn in Monday, will accelerate interest rate hikes and slow the economy. A slowing economy would likely turn the bull market toward bearish.

There was also focus on the 10-year Treasury bond, a closely watched harbinger of investor sentiment. The yield’s rise toward 3 percent is widely believed to be a marker for investors to eschew equities for the appetizing stability of bonds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/dow-drops-more-than-300-at-opening-extending-fridays-losses/2018/02/05/624f72c6-0a80-11e8-8890-372e2047c935_story.html

“If the yield on the 10-year hits 3 percent in the next several days, equities are likely to decline dramatically because of fears of the Federal Reserve aggressively slowing down the economy by raising interest rates,” said James Norman, president of QS Investors.

Bond yields are rising as the Federal Reserve trims its U.S. bond holdings. The U.S. Treasury is also having to borrow more money, partly because of the tax cuts, and issuing more debt tends to raise yields.

 

The stock market has lost $1 trillion in value in the first five days of February.

“People are not eager to buy stocks on a day like today,” said Wayne Wicker, chief investment officer at ICMA Retirement Corp. “Investors are looking at high gross domestic product growth in the first quarter. For people buying equities, that should be a positive. It will be, but not today.”

Monday’s big skid — which was the largest intraday trading drop in Dow history — came on the heels of Friday’s 666-point Dow decline, the sixth-highest point drop in Dow history but only around 2.5 percent from its lofty highs.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down four of the last five sessions heading into Monday. The technology-laden Nasdaq was down six of its last eight sessions as markets opened Monday. 

Blackstone Group chief operating officer Tony James said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Monday that stocks were “fully valued” and “you could easily see a 10 to 20 percent correction sometime this year.”

Many observers believe healthy corporate earnings justify the robust stock prices. With half of the S&P 500 reporting earnings so far this season, more than 80 percent of companies are beating expectations.

“I see this decline as an opportunity given that corporate earnings are rising, interest rates remain low, despite having risen recently, and economic indicators are pointing up,” said Daniel P. Wiener, chief executive of Adviser Investments, a Newton, Mass.-based firm. “Even at 2.85 percent, the 10-year’s yield is simply back to where it was four years ago. It’s not setting some new kind of record other than its rapid ascent.”

Foreign indexes were down across the board as worries over inflation and rising U.S. Treasury bond yields swept through financial markets. The FTSE was down 1.46 percent and the Nikkei 225 finished down 2.55 percent.

Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts and other reliable, dividend-heavy stocks that resemble bonds are being hit by the rise in bond yields. Stocks were hit hard across the board with only technology surviving Monday’s bloodletting in the Dow. Apple, Cisco, Intel and Microsoft were all on the upside as the rest of the 30-stock blue chip index went negative.

Delta, Chevron, Hess and D.R. Horton are all more than 10 percent off their 52-week highs as the market retreats.

Many hailed the bounce in the markets over the last week as part of the natural ebb and flow of stocks. The relative serenity over the last year where markets seemed on a relentless, upward arc is an anomaly. 

Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, the wealth and investment advisory arm of M&T Bank, said a correction would be healthy for the market because it would return some element of volatility, which has been markedly absent over the past year.

“Ultimately,” he said, “the bottom line is investors are dealing with a highly valued equity market that is supported by strong economic data in earnings.”

The market volatility arrived last week after an unusually long period when it appeared there was no stopping its upward march. The S&P 500 in January saw its 10th consecutive monthly gain, the longest in 59 years.

Friday’s markets went tumbling on good economic news as the Labor Department reported a 2.9 percent increase in hourly earnings. That’s good news for workers but creates nervousness among equity investors concerned that the rise will fuel inflation.

The 10-year bond was trading at 2.851 percent on Monday, short of the feared 3 percent marker where investors consider leaving equities for the relative safe returns of bonds.

But inflation worries abound, with some harkening back to the grim economics of the 1970s when inflation soared into double digits.

“Inflation is the current bugbear but it’s also a convenient excuse for taking profits in a new year when tax rates have fallen, on short term gains at least, given the heights to which the market has risen,” Wiener said.

There was more good news on Monday as the Institute for Supply Managment reported a surge in service industry orders that was the fastest pace in a decade.

“The service side of the economy was very robust in January,” Tilley said. “The economy is still doing well.”

 

The market has not had a 5 percent correction for more than 400 days. Historically, corrections of 5 percent occur every 90 to 120 days.

[Людас]

А Маркс попереджував про ці срані фінансові бульбашки і періоди криз як результат. Називав це "фіктивним капіталом".

А всі на нього - комуняка ...

[Dilbert]

ну не всі

і його ще досі вивчають в бізнес школах в США 

[Людас]

ну не всі

і його ще досі вивчають в бізнес школах в США 

 

Угу. Вивчають . Але висновків схоже не роблять. 

Бо світова фінансова бульбашка вже таких розмірів , що якщо іпоне , то картина буде набагато

гірша ніж пряме попадання гарної бомби у в каналізаційний відстійник великого міста.

Забризкає всіх.

 

 

 . 

[Вуйко_З_Онтарио]

Его изучают как Европейского гениального фрика в качестве исторического экскурса. Потому что к Новой экономической Истории и тем более к новейшей Маркс имеет опосредованное отношение. Он просто не писал о том, что случится с Капитализмом, и будет ли он вообще по достижении империалистической фазы. Но  некоторые актуальные аспекты до сих пор тянутся из описаного им времени.

Согласно   Шону Макилви 5 признаков, описаных Марксом будут всегда, покуда существует Капитализм:

Глобальные рецессии, мнимые потребности, углубление глобализации, Резервная трудовая армия, естественные монополии и укрупнение бизнесов.

В остальном мир стал гараздо сложнее и уже ушел за пределы его предсказаний.

[coolzak]

Циклічність капіталістичної економіки це як зима і літо.Але як сніг для українських дорожників завжди випадає несподівано в грудні так і для багатьох псевдоекономістів кризи в економіці приходять.Стоки росли задовго вверх.Корекція була очікувана.Олені як завжди побіжуть всі разом

[Dilbert]

нє ну зрозуміло, коли він писав і що зараз

 

вже на його зміну нові хвілософи прийшли

[Людас]

Его изучают как Европейского гениального фрика в качестве исторического экскурса. Потому что к Новой экономической Истории и тем более к новейшей Маркс имеет опосредованное отношение. Он просто не писал о том, что случится с Капитализмом, и будет ли он вообще по достижении империалистической фазы. Но  некоторые актуальные аспекты до сих пор тянутся из описаного им времени.

Согласно   Шону Макилви 5 признаков, описаных Марксом будут всегда, покуда существует Капитализм:

Глобальные рецессии, мнимые потребности, углубление глобализации, Резервная трудовая армия, естественные монополии и укрупнение бизнесов.

В остальном мир стал гараздо сложнее и уже ушел за пределы его предсказаний.

 

Я тя умоляю..

 

Людство як було керованим натовпом напівтварин так і  залишилось..

Причому незавжди керованим. 

[Вуйко_З_Онтарио]

Мы говорим о функционале мира или о толпе? Толпа как раз становится тупее по мере эволюции общественных отношений.

И даже не умоляйте меня. Я и сам догадываюсь, что мы - суть обезьяны.  И умница А.Марков тоже самое утверждает в своей книжке про Эволюцию Человека.

[Dilbert]

тоді одна надія на колонізаторів - екстратерестіалз 

[zero]

Степан Демура ! Ждем все начнется к 7 Февраля ,!!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zZqSc82xd8

[Dilbert]

   

[Dilbert]

може бути херовий наслідок для середнього класу і пенсійних заощаджень

 

міленіули і так вже в бейсментах або на з"йомних квартирах

[Вуйко_З_Онтарио]

Некоторые хитрые в бейсментах родительских домов. У них есть перспектива стать богатыми не сильно напрягаясь.

[Параска]

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_(%D1%84%D0%B8%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BC)

[Dilbert]

ага класний фільм

але це про 2008 кризу

[coolzak]

Некоторые хитрые в бейсментах родительских домов. У них есть перспектива стать богатыми не сильно напрягаясь.

В мене обидві доньки вже купили хати з нареченими,може вони нетипові міленіуми

[Людас]

Мы говорим о функционале мира или о толпе? Толпа как раз становится тупее по мере эволюции общественных отношений.

И даже не умоляйте меня. Я и сам догадываюсь, что мы - суть обезьяны.  И умница А.Марков тоже самое утверждает в своей книжке про Эволюцию Человека.

Спалив ти мене

[Спартак]

щось зашвидко.

 

По ідеї навернутись повинна бульбашка криптовалют, але її ще недостатньо надули.

[Людас]

може бути херовий наслідок для середнього класу і пенсійних заощаджень

 

міленіули і так вже в бейсментах або на з"йомних квартирах

Не просто хєровий , а фатальний. Вже йдуть очевидні процеси по знищенню як середнього

класу так і т.н. пенсійних заощаджень. І це я не про Україну кажу.

Тут немає ні першого , ні другого.

[Людас]

щось зашвидко.

 

По ідеї навернутись повинна бульбашка криптовалют, але її ще недостатньо надули.

Я тя умоляю (с).

Криптовалюти то дитяча забавка , яка є тільки бекграундом катастрофічного соціального

розшарування людства останні десь 10-15 років.

Битва 1 % найбагатших проти 99 % злиднів..

[Dilbert]

[Людас]

Та ну. Не переймайся. А що тільки цивілізації майя чи римлянам мала бути срака ?

Всі там будуть.

Живи та насолоджуйся драйвом пиздеця чергової цивілізації т.н. вершини миростворення. Я взагалі більше дельфінів люблю.

Змінено 6 лютого, 2018 користувачем Людас

[coolzak]

Кінець одного устрою це початок іншого мінус в і хто загнувся при переході

[Людас]

Кінець одного устрою це початок іншого мінус в і хто загнувся при переході

Амінь + !

Змінено 6 лютого, 2018 користувачем Людас

[Спартак]

Я тя умоляю (с).

Криптовалюти то дитяча забавка , яка є тільки бекграундом катастрофічного соціального

розшарування людства останні десь 10-15 років.

 

крипта - це аналог доткомів 90х

Для контрольованого обвалу має бути якийсь жупел типу доткомів чи нерухомості.  Імовірно цього разу це буде криптовалюти, але це буде ще не зараз

[coolzak]

Стабільність західних економік привязана зараз до низьких кредитів.В момент коли іпотека стане 6-10 відсотків ми побачимо велику дупу.Ті хто матиме готівку у руках скупить ліквід.Вже років 25 не було нормальної корекції.В 80-90 платили 10-18 відсотків по іпотеці

[Dilbert]

The Era of Easy Money Is Ending, and the World Is Bracing for Shocks

 

ну для когось гроші легкі, а дупою накриє і тих, хто важко працював все життя

коли це блядство кінчиться

 

The worst that could happen, the money masters averred, was that investors would be lulled into reckless investments, taking on too much risk in the belief that the dangers of the marketplace had been tamed.

As it turns out, the dangers were already at work. A decade-long era of easy access to money engineered by central banks in Asia, Europe and the United States was ending, opening a new chapter in which corporations would have to pay more to borrow and ordinary people would have to pay more to finance homes, cars and other purchases.

To digest the wild swings in stocks and bonds from New York to London to Tokyo is to absorb this uncomfortable realization taking hold.

Investors concluded that interest rates would rise faster than they had anticipated, almost certainly in the United States, and perhaps eventually in Europe and Asia, too. They yanked their treasure out of stocks and entrusted it to safer repositories of wealth like bonds and cash.

A wave of selling commenced in New York on Friday, continued in Asia and Europe on Monday, and then completed its trans-global journey with a sharp drop where it had all started. While a global rout continued into Tuesday, anxiety subsided in the United States, with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index up 1.7 percent at the close. The gains helped erase some of the losses over the past week, although the S.&P. 500 is still more than 6 percent off its peak in late January.

No degree in finance was required to divine the lesson of the moment: Markets go down as well as up, a reality often drowned out by the euphoric celebrations to greet one record or another being shattered.

While trading in the United States was clearly the initial source of alarm, the concerns spread to everywhere that money changes hands. The American economy had swapped the frivolity of a stock market party for the grim trappings of a bedside vigil. The result was gloom and anxiety in every reach of the financial sphere.

 

“The United States is by some distance the largest market on earth,” said Gaurav Saroliya, director of global macro strategy at Oxford Economics in London. “Growth in the United States has a huge bearing on economies everywhere. If the largest market is selling off, that has a very powerful effect on investment sentiment. It makes people risk averse.”

The fear that seized the United States was the spawn of good times. As the feeling sank in that stock trading was governed by a surplus of exuberance, the odds increased that the Federal Reserve would dampen the festivities by lifting interest rates faster than policymakers had previously telegraphed.

Not for nothing, central banks are seen by investors as crucial yet fun-averse grown-ups charged with solemnly watching for trouble. When crises emerge, they make money available to spur commerce while keeping terror at bay. The global economic expansion underway now is in large part a product of the Fed’s swiftly unleashing an overwhelming surge of credit after the start of the financial crisis in 2008, combined with the slower yet, eventually, effective torrent of cash delivered by the European Central Bank.

But when the party gets raging — when economies accelerate and stock prices ascend to levels out of whack with fundamentals — central bankers play killjoy, lifting interest rates to snuff out attendant dangers.

Higher rates diminish speculation that can end badly by making credit more expensive. They slow economic growth while making stocks less appealing, because corporations must pay more to keep up with their debts. Investors can make more just by keeping their holdings in cash or bonds, rather than by accepting the higher risk of stocks.

The bitter irony of the current swoon is that it was triggered by the emergence of something the world has been awaiting for years: higher wages for workers.

Even as unemployment rates have lowered drastically in Britain, Japan and the United States, companies have continued to find new ways to make more products and sell more services without paying more to their employees. This has been a major source of unhappiness among working people, and a subject of consternation among policymakers.

Then, last Friday, the latest monthly snapshot of the American labor market revealed that wages had climbed 2.9 percent in January compared with a year earlier. The tight job market was forcing employers to pay more.

This appeared to presage a strengthening of American consumer power. If more working people take home more money, they will presumably be more inclined to buy houses and cars, generating jobs in construction and at auto plants from Michigan to South Carolina. They will fill restaurants, necessitating more truck drivers to ferry the food, and more mechanics to keep the trucks running.

This same so-called virtuous cycle appeared to be amplifying global growth. More cars made in the United States would require more brake linings made in Mexico and more circuitry forged in China, using copper mined in Chile. More construction would require equipment from Germany and Japan, and more iron ore from Brazil to make steel.

This interconnectivity has been central to the anticipation that a strengthening economy in the United States would lift fortunes around the world.

But the increase in wages for American workers meant something else. It was a flashing warning to investors about potential inflation, or rising prices, which have crippled many economies. The Fed, always vigilant, wields a standard tool for snuffing out inflation if necessary: higher interest rates.

This is how a positive jobs report, presumably a sign of a strengthening American economy, wound up as the impetus for the dumping of stocks from Taipei to Toronto. It enhanced the likelihood that the Fed would raise rates faster. It prompted investors to wonder how long the European Central Bank could maintain its own ultralow rates.

In the past year, Europe has shaken off perpetual worries of a grinding decline to emerge as one of the faster-growing major economies on earth. Inflation remains weak in Europe, undergirding expectations that the central bank will be slow to take back its free money.

But if the Fed were to lift rates faster, that could prompt Europe and perhaps even Japan to follow suit. Otherwise, the United States would be in a position to capture an outsize share of global investment, as rates presumably rise on American government bonds.

All of this is playing out amid a transition in central bank leadership. At the Fed, Janet L. Yellen, the economist who was the chairwoman of the Board of Governors, on Monday completed her term and handed power to her successor, Jerome H. Powell. Mr. Powell is widely expected to continue Ms. Yellen’s cautious march toward higher interest rates. Still, as a newcomer taking the tiller in the midst of extraordinary volatility, he is a variable.

Mario Draghi, the Italian who heads the European Central Bank, is scheduled to complete his eight-year term late next year. At the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda’s term as governor expires in April, and there is uncertainty over whether he will be reappointed.

Some economists think that the dour talk is overblown and that the stock markets are running on emotion untethered from economic reality, a narrative that gained force as markets in New York snapped back from the depths on Tuesday.

The fundamentals of the United States expansion remain intact. Rising wages should indeed give people money to spend without resorting to some newfangled credit bubble that ends tragically.

Whatever the interest rates, central banks retain trillions of dollars on their balance sheets earmarked for buying up financial assets, making credit available. And the return to higher interest rates is inevitable, a healthy turn for a world economy that can finally close the books on the global financial crisis that began a decade ago.

“We have gotten used to this low interest rate environment,” said Robert Bergqvist, chief economist at SEB, a global investment bank based in Stockholm. “This is not the normal situation.”

The global economic expansion has occasioned hopeful talk that the world now has multiple engines of growth, inoculating it against trouble in any single region. But the events of recent days have challenged that notion, given that a sudden deterioration of stock prices on Wall Street quickly burst into a global rout.

Sentiments are clearly a viral phenomenon. Yet the distress in global markets also underscores the fact that real economic fortunes are fused.

240COMMENTS

If General Electric, Ford and other multinational companies see their share prices brought down as borrowing costs climb, they could limit plans for expansion. The trend would be felt in diminished orders for computer chips made in Taiwan, flat-panel displays forged in South Korea and auto parts built in the Czech Republic. It could cool demand for raw materials harvested from Argentina to India to South Africa.

“Business cycles across different markets are more correlated than they have ever been,” said Mr. Saroliya, of Oxford Economics. “It’s the global supply chain.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/06/business/stocks-bonds-markets-central-banks.html

[Людас]

крипта - це аналог доткомів 90х

Для контрольованого обвалу має бути якийсь жупел типу доткомів чи нерухомості.  Імовірно цього разу це буде криптовалюти, але це буде ще не зараз

 

В принципі згоден. Не зараз . Але скоро.

Змінено 7 лютого, 2018 користувачем Людас